DATA COLLECTION
This research identifies political factors and economic factors from the Japanese “Diplomatic Bluebook.” The political factors are coded as the number of the remarks by the Japanese government on political relations with the PRC. To operationalize the political factor, we attempt a content analysis of the bluebook; and economic factors are accounted for by the amount of trade between Japan and the PRC. The value of trade with the PRC was recorded in the diplomatic bluebook, and the net total of Japanese trade as a percentage of bilateral trade was available in the “Trade Statistics of Japan” database.
The annual diplomatic document clarifies the general framework of Japanese diplomacy, describes the various issues of the year, and precisely articulates the government’s position on diplomatic issues.
It is a very fundamental document to analyze the perception of the Japanese government in that it contains documents with summaries and evaluations. The words and sentences are carefully constructed and selected for each year’s official diplomatic bluebook. The bluebook represents the diplomatic positions of the Japanese government, and it is meaningful to analyze the construction of its contents?what is included and what is excluded both have profound significance.
This research analyzed contents of diplomatic bluebooks from 1957 to 1972 (
Table 1); these cover the period of Japanese diplomacy from 1956 to 1971. There are some excluded contents in the first book. The 1957 book has some summary of diplomatic activities before 1956, but they are insufficient to compare with other years. Also, the 1973 book has large amounts of content about Sino- Japanese normalization. Because this research is about the policy of separation of economy and politics before the normalization, the 1973 book was excluded for research purposes.
The contents of the bluebook are arranged in three parts. The first part contains general remarks with a macro approach, such as global trends, general keynote addresses of Japanese diplomacy, etc. The second part deals with particular explanations with details on each country or in special issue areas like economy, environment, technology, etc. The third part offers crucial documents of the year, including signed agreements, records of summits and personal exchanges, results of trade, etc.
Sino-Japanese relations are recorded in each year’s diplomatic bluebook. The contents can be divided into international, bilateral, and domestic relations. Most remarks about the PRC can be found in the section titled “Asian Relations.” Sentences with the word “China” or “PRC” were extracted from. Also, all of the contents labeled in the index with “China” or “PRC” were included. Most of the contents unrelated to the PRC or China were excluded. Therefore, this research demonstrates the official position of the Japanese government on issues in Sino- Japanese relations.
The values of trade with the PRC are also recorded in the diplomatic bluebooks.
1 This research set four dependent variables for economic factors: exports to the PRC, imports from the PRC, the net total of bilateral trade, and the proportion of trade with the PRC. Exports, imports, and net totals of bilateral trade are absolute values of trade between Japan and PRC. The unit of the figures in Japan’s customs statistics is millions of dollars.
OPERATIONALIZATION
Remarks about political factors were coded as the number of sentences. In most cases, each sentence contained one fact. If there was more than one fact in a given sentence, the phrases were counted corresponding to each category. For example, there were sentences like “Japan’s Chinese policy premises that, on the one hand, it has a peace treaty and diplomatic relations with ROC, and on the other hand, it has to establish actual relations with mainland China with 700 million people.” Even though this is one sentence, it includes both
Japan-ROC (Positive) relations and
Japan-PRC (Positive) relations. This sentence counted in both variables. The sentences extracted from the diplomatic bluebooks between 1957 and 1972 are categorized as follows (
Table 2).
The first two factors were collected from the comments on international relations. The first political factor, PRC-International Relations (Positive), indicates that the Japanese government acknowledged the PRC’s status in international relations to be important. For instance, the number of countries that established diplomatic relations with the PRC increased, the role of the PRC in the Communist bloc became crucial as the PRC increased exchanges with Asian countries.
The second political factor, PRC-International Relations (Negative), means that the Japanese government judged that the PRC’s international relations had been worsened. For example, there are remarks about the criticism toward the PRC for its nuclear experiment, its non-admission to the United Nations, etc.
The third through sixth variables came from the arena of bilateral relations. The third variable is Japan-PRC (Positive), indicating positive political relations with PRC. There are remarks about the newly signed agreements, increased exchange of people, and the importance of relations with the PRC.
The fourth variable is Japan-PRC (Negative). This variable includes the remarks about the nullification or procrastination of agreements, Japan’s condemnations of the PRC, and conflicts like the Nagasaki flag incident and the Senkaku/Diaoyudao disputes.
The fifth variable is Japan-ROC (Positive). This includes statements that Japanese government evaluated the political relations with ROC as positive: the importance of relations with the ROC, increases of personal exchange, the importance of relations with the ROC, and emphasis on the shared value of liberal democracy with ROC.
The sixth variable is Japan-ROC (Negative). The Japanese government recorded negative relations with ROC, like the Senkaku/Diaoyudao disputes, political conflicts, etc.
The last variable is the PRC’s condemnations of Japan. The Japanese government recorded PRC remarks blaming Japan in the diplomatic bluebooks. This is different from other independent variables in that the remarks originally came from the PRC government. The number of sentences on the remarks about the PRC’s condemnation of Japan indicates how the Japanese government accepted and reacted to the PRC’s claims.
In sum, there are seven independent variables about political relations. The positive remarks and negative remarks were divided into PRC-International Relations, Japan-ROC relations, and Japan-PRC Relations. Because the number of remarks was measured in an interval scale, the positive remarks and the negative remarks each have their own meaning so that they cannot be offset. For instance, if there were six remarks on Japan-ROC (Positive) and six remarks on Japan-ROC (Negative), this cannot be offset to 0 remarks, which would there were not any remarks about Japan-ROC relations. Therefore, positive remarks and negative remarks need to be kept separate.
Likewise, it can be easy to have prejudice on the correlations between the variables, like PRC-International Relations (Positive), Japan-PRC (Positive), and Japan-ROC (Negative). There are not any preconditions for the correlations among these factors. PRC-International Relations (Positive) does not assure Japan-PRC (Positive). Also, Japan-PRC (Positive) does not guarantee Japan- ROC (Negative).
The seven independent variables have individual meanings and influences. This research uses multiple regression analysis and verifies whether there is any correlation among them.
On the other hand, there are four dependent variables representing the economic relations between Japan and PRC. To be more specific, these are the amount of exports to the PRC (Model 1), the amount of imports from the PRC (Model 2), the net total of imports and exports (Model 3), and the ratio of trade with the PRC to trade with all countries (Model 4). The unit of the figures is millions of dollars, and they are taken from Japan’s customs statistics. The annual trade values came from the diplomatic bluebooks and data of Japan’s trade statistics.